Obviously the series is timed for highest point of impact, the first day of the Tour. Speculation immediately is focusing on its impact on Team Radio Shack, which includes Lance and several holdovers from the era in question. Some suggest that Lance will withdraw, or that the team will be forced out by stringent oversight.

We think Team Radio Shack and Lance will continue through the Tour as though nothing has happened. We also think they’ll be squeaky clean throughout. Which means lowering expectations, because a clean Team Radio Shack will be in no position to challenge for leadership roles in this year’s Tour.

We reiterate that Lance’s announcement that this will be his final Tour was a calculated attempt to deflect attention from the doping allegations and redirect focus to his ride as a triumphant farewell rock-star tour. Although the Journal‘s series elaborates on several key facets of doping, naming names and identifying dates, it does not constitute a legal action that would require either TRS or cycling’s governing body, the UCI, to withdraw from competition.

Although we’ve gotten pushback for being naive (see comments), we still think Lance will — at the right time and place — own up to the doping years. There are too many witnesses, too many associates involved, for the scandal to avoid litigation. Rather than dragging everything out in court and risking permanent blackening of his reputation, Lance will choose an “everybody did it” defense. As Richard Nixon famously put it, “It’s not the crime that kills you, it’s the cover up.”

Around the Web:

Cozy Beehive: Testimonies in the Lance Armstrong Doping Crisis.

Joe Papp: Books, Angry Motorists, Greg and Lance.

Bonnie Ford, ESPN: Crunch Time for Lance.

VeloNews: Bikes sold to finance doping.